No breakthroughs are forecast at the UN-sponsored talks on Cyprus

The expanded five-party meeting in Geneva on Monday, will include the Turkish and Greek Cypriot sides, as well as the Turkey, Greece, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.

The island has remained divided since 1974, when Turkish forces invaded and occupied the northern part of the island.

A few years later and after several failed attempts to resolve it, the so-called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus declared itself independent of Cyprus, but has only ever been recognised by Turkey.

Western states – and much of the international community – consider the Turkish occupied area as part of the Republic of Cyprus and they support the island’s reunification.

Greek Cyprus, which is an EU state, insists on a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation based on UN Security Council resolutions, while the Turkish Cypriot side advocates for a two-state solution.

Aristos Michaelides, director of Phileleftheros newspaper, concluded that no positive outcome is expected because both sides remain too far apart.

“At this stage, no substantive progress is expected, but confidence-building measures, like opening new crossing points, may be proposed. Both sides agree on opening new crossing points, though they disagree on which ones and when,” Michaelides said.

He added that the UN Secretary-General may intervene to help resolve this issue.

Cyprus President Nicos Christodoulides said he is coming to the Geneva talks with a concrete plan and proposals.

Turkish Cypriot leader Ersin Tatar emphasised the importance of Turkey’s guarantees and stated that he would represent the rights of the Turkish Cypriot people, stressing the importance of Turkey’s guarantees to them. Tatar also pointed out that the UN Secretary-General has acknowledged there is no common ground between the sides.

Michaelides noted that while the public has little expectation for breakthrough progress, they still hold onto some hope that a solution could emerge.

“The people hear the statements from both sides, see the red lines, and feel a negative atmosphere. Yet, they still hope for a miracle to break the deadlock,” he said.

While supporters of a solution value the mere convening of the meeting, they acknowledge that expectations are low.

However, after the last five-day meeting also in Geneva in 2021, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that “Squaring the circle is impossible in geometry, but it is very common in politics.”